Putting Up Numbers· college football

Kansas’ points allowed with Cole Ballard and without Cole Ballard

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 1.6 points over with Cole Ballard and 0.4 points under without Cole Ballard in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 22.0 and 24.0, a difference of 2.0. Expected was 6.9 points lower with Cole Ballard than without Cole Ballard. All 4 home games were without Cole Ballard. Both ranked opponents were without Cole Ballard. All 3 nonconference games were without Cole Ballard.

Cole Ballard, quarterback: 381 passing yards, 43 pass attempts and 25 completions in 4 games this season.

One game with Cole Ballard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

points allowed a game over expected

The games

with Cole Ballardwithout Cole Ballard
Kansas’ games, 2026, each marked with Cole Ballard or without Cole Ballard
SideDateGameResultpoints allowedExpected
Sep 4, 2026vsLLong Island UniversityW6—
Sep 11, 2026vsMissouriL3825.5
Sep 19, 2026vsArizona State (neutral)L2427.1
Oct 3, 2026vsMiddle TennesseeW023.4
Oct 10, 2026@UtahL4133.6
Oct 17, 2026@Kansas StateL3524.8
Oct 24, 2026vsBaylorW2429.6
Oct 31, 2026@TCUL2220.4

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.