Putting Up Numbers· college football

Kansas’ penalty yards with Cole Ballard and without Cole Ballard

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 7.4 yards over with Cole Ballard and 9.0 yards under without Cole Ballard over its last 25 games, 1 game against 22. The plain averages are 63.0 and 42.5, a difference of 20.5. All 11 home games were without Cole Ballard. All 3 neutral-site games were without Cole Ballard. All 4 night games were without Cole Ballard.

Cole Ballard, quarterback: 489 passing yards, 65 pass attempts and 35 completions in 12 of those 25 games.

One game with Cole Ballard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

penalty yards a game over expected

The games

with Cole Ballardwithout Cole Ballard
Kansas’ games, last 25 games, each marked with Cole Ballard or without Cole Ballard
SideDateGameResultpenalty yardsExpected
Oct 26, 2024@Kansas StateL2541.7
Nov 9, 2024vsIowa State (neutral)W3251.4
Nov 16, 2024@BYUW1046.9
Nov 23, 2024vsColorado (neutral)W3556.0
Nov 30, 2024@BaylorL1549.3
Aug 23, 2025vsFresno StateW7250.2
Aug 29, 2025vsWWagnerW55—
Sep 6, 2025@MissouriL1050.5
Sep 20, 2025vsWest VirginiaW4049.3
Sep 27, 2025vsCincinnatiL2639.8
Oct 4, 2025@UCFW4146.3
Oct 11, 2025@Texas TechL4542.0
Oct 25, 2025vsKansas StateL4636.8
Nov 1, 2025vsOklahoma StateW3045.3
Nov 8, 2025@ArizonaL5546.4
Nov 22, 2025@Iowa StateL2556.0
Nov 28, 2025vsUtahL3246.7
Sep 4, 2026vsLLong Island UniversityW60—
Sep 11, 2026vsMissouriL8960.1
Sep 19, 2026vsArizona State (neutral)L4050.5
Oct 3, 2026vsMiddle TennesseeW5060.1
Oct 10, 2026@UtahL9059.3
Oct 17, 2026@Kansas StateL6657.8
Oct 24, 2026vsBaylorW3059.4
Oct 31, 2026@TCUL6355.6

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
  • Wagner, Long Island University have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.