Kansas’ carries with Yasin Willis and since Yasin Willis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 0.1 carries over with Yasin Willis and 3.2 carries over since Yasin Willis’ last game in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 42.3 and 42.2, a difference of 0.1. Expected was 1.1 carries lower with Yasin Willis than since Yasin Willis’ last game. All 3 away games were since Yasin Willis’ last game. All 4 second-half games were since Yasin Willis’ last game.
Yasin Willis, running back: 125 rushing yards, 27 carries and 3 receptions in 3 games this season, 21% of Kansas’s carries in those games.
3 games with Yasin Willis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −3.1 difference in carries over expected with Yasin Willis vs since Yasin Willis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +0.1 difference in carries with Yasin Willis vs since Yasin Willis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Missouri | L | 35 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | 41 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 57 | 38.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 21 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 34 | 43.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Baylor | W | 53 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 46 | 37.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.