Kansas’ carries with Isaiah Marshall and without Isaiah Marshall
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 1.3 carries over with Isaiah Marshall and 0.4 carries over without Isaiah Marshall over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 41.7 and 35.8, a difference of 5.9. All 3 night games were without Isaiah Marshall.
Isaiah Marshall, quarterback: 1,534 passing yards, 199 pass attempts and 108 completions in 15 of those 25 games, 18% of Kansas’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Isaiah Marshall
+1.3
without Isaiah Marshall
+0.4
-10010
A +0.8 difference in carries over expected with Isaiah Marshall vs without Isaiah Marshall is about what you’d expect.
plain
41.7
35.8
20304050
A +5.9 difference in carries with Isaiah Marshall vs without Isaiah Marshall is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Isaiah Marshallwithout Isaiah Marshall
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | 34 | 34.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | W | 43 | 33.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ BYU | W | 30 | 36.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 55 | 37.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 31 | 39.4 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Fresno State | W | 34 | 32.9 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 19 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 39 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 27 | 40.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UCF | W | 30 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 38 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsKansas State | L | 39 | 36.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 37 | 35.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 40 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Iowa State | L | 21 | 33.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 51 | 34.4 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | 35 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | 41 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 57 | 38.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Utah | L | 21 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Kansas State | L | 34 | 43.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 53 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 46 | 37.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner, Long Island University have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Isaiah Marshall nor without Isaiah Marshall: Isaiah Marshall had no game for the team that season, and sit out.