Jacksonville State’s third-down conversion rate with Jalen Likely and without Jalen Likely
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jacksonville State was 2.2 percentage points over with Jalen Likely and 2.1 percentage points under without Jalen Likely over its last 25 games, 11 games against 8. The plain averages are 43.5% and 36.7%, a difference of 6.8%. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with Jalen Likely.
Jalen Likely, running back: 292 rushing yards, 51 carries and 11 receptions in 11 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jalen Likely
+2.2%
without Jalen Likely
−2.1%
-10%0%10%20%
A +4.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jalen Likely vs without Jalen Likely is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.5%
36.7%
20%40%60%80%
A +6.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jalen Likely vs without Jalen Likely is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jalen Likelywithout Jalen Likely
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 15.4% | 43.6% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 44.4% | 42.0% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 39.5% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 20.0% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 57.1% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 50.0% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 28.6% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 35.7% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 44.4% | 36.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 33.3% | 31.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 36.4% | 36.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 23.1% | 38.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 33.3% | 37.0% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | L | 27.3% | 37.5% | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Troy (neutral) | W | 47.1% | 36.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 20.0% | — | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Ohio | L | 60.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | W | 36.4% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 43.8% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 50.0% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 30.0% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 54.5% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, North Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Jalen Likely nor without Jalen Likely: Jalen Likely had no game for the team that season, and sit out.