Jacksonville State’s third-down conversion rate with Jalen Likely and without Jalen Likely
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jacksonville State was 2.3 percentage points over with Jalen Likely and 4.4 percentage points over without Jalen Likely in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 46.0% and 45.0%, a difference of 1.0%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jalen Likely. Both games after a bye were with Jalen Likely.
Jalen Likely, running back: 240 rushing yards, 44 carries and 8 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Jalen Likely is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jalen Likely vs without Jalen Likely is about what you’d expect.
A +1.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jalen Likely vs without Jalen Likely is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 20.0% | — | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 60.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 36.4% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 43.8% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 50.0% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 30.0% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 54.5% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.