Jacksonville State’s rushing yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
, ,
Through Jacksonville State’s game on Dec 16, 2025.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jacksonville State was 69.3 yards over in a conference game and 41.0 yards under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 7. The plain averages are 298.5 and 203.3, a difference of 95.3. All 4 games without Brock Rechsteiner were in a conference game.
Jacksonville State’s +110.3 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 130 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Dec 16, 2025.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +110.3 difference in rushing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +95.3 difference in rushing yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 275 | 271.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2024 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 384 | 227.5 | |
| Oct 9, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | W | 334 | 252.5 | |
| Oct 23, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 440 | 243.9 | |
| Oct 30, 2024 | @ Liberty | W | 364 | 207.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | W | 224 | 203.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Florida International | W | 236 | 249.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Sam Houston | W | 278 | 208.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 229 | 268.2 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 386 | 256.1 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 67 | 192.9 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 165 | 178.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsLiberty | W | 343 | 212.6 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 213 | 258.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 334 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Southern Miss | L | 262 | 203.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsSam Houston (neutral) | W | 370 | 244.6 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 257 | 206.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @Middle Tennessee | W | 150 | 214.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 277 | 217.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | W | 259 | 235.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Florida International | L | 251 | 211.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 293 | 237.2 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | L | 210 | 241.8 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Troy (neutral) | W | 100 | 232.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 in 2024, plus 5.9 in 2025 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 77% in 2025 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.