Jacksonville State’s rushing yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jacksonville State was 47.3 yards over in a conference game and 44.9 yards under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 14 games against 8. The plain averages are 261.9 and 172.7, a difference of 89.2. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
Jacksonville State’s +92.2 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 2nd of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +92.2 difference in rushing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A +89.2 difference in rushing yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 229 | 268.2 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 386 | 256.1 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 67 | 192.9 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 165 | 178.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 343 | 212.6 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 213 | 258.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 334 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 262 | 203.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 370 | 244.6 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 257 | 206.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 150 | 214.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 277 | 217.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 259 | 235.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 251 | 211.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 293 | 237.2 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | L | 210 | 241.8 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Troy (neutral) | W | 100 | 232.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 99 | — | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 174 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Ohio | L | 164 | 170.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | W | 112 | 173.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 279 | 196.9 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 76 | 206.2 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 173 | 163.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 324 | 135.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 in 2024, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, North Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.