Jacksonville State’s points allowed with Jalen Likely and without Jalen Likely
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jacksonville State was 6.9 points under with Jalen Likely and 7.1 points over without Jalen Likely in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 17.7 and 26.5, a difference of 8.8. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jalen Likely. Both games after a bye were with Jalen Likely.
Jalen Likely, running back: 240 rushing yards, 44 carries and 8 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Jalen Likely is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −14.0 difference in points allowed over expected with Jalen Likely vs without Jalen Likely is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jalen Likely and it comes up 13 times in 100.
A −8.8 difference in points allowed with Jalen Likely vs without Jalen Likely is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 33 | — | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 29 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 27 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 13 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 26 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 24 | 16.0 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 0 | 26.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.