Iowa’s third-down conversion rate with Nathan McNeil and without Nathan McNeil
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 2.2 percentage points over with Nathan McNeil and 2.7 percentage points under without Nathan McNeil over its last 25 games, 12 games against 7. The plain averages are 43.1% and 36.8%, a difference of 6.4%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Nathan McNeil. All 3 games after a bye were with Nathan McNeil.
Nathan McNeil, running back: 297 rushing yards, 58 carries and 10 receptions in 12 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Nathan McNeil
+2.2%
without Nathan McNeil
−2.7%
-20%0%20%
A +4.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Nathan McNeil vs without Nathan McNeil is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.1%
36.8%
20%40%60%
A +6.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Nathan McNeil vs without Nathan McNeil is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Nathan McNeilwithout Nathan McNeil
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ UCLA | L | 40.0% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 35.7% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Nebraska | W | 0.0% | 41.0% | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Missouri (neutral) | L | 46.2% | 33.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsUUAlbany | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | 35.7% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 62.5% | 49.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 37.5% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 37.5% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 41.7% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 40.0% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 33.3% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 38.5% | 36.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ USC | L | 40.0% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 10.0% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Nebraska | W | 58.3% | 37.9% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 42.9% | 50.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 33.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 42.9% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 45.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 33.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 25.0% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 53.3% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Northern Iowa have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 16 of these 21 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Nathan McNeil nor without Nathan McNeil: Nathan McNeil had no game for the team that season, and sit out.