Iowa’s third-down conversion rate with Nathan McNeil and without Nathan McNeil
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 2.2 percentage points under with Nathan McNeil and 3.3 percentage points over without Nathan McNeil in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 38.4% and 40.5%, a difference of 2.1%. Expected was 3.6 percentage points higher with Nathan McNeil than without Nathan McNeil. All 3 nonconference games were with Nathan McNeil.
Nathan McNeil, running back: 128 rushing yards, 21 carries and 5 receptions in 4 games this season.
3 games without Nathan McNeil is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Nathan McNeil vs without Nathan McNeil is about what you’d expect.
A −2.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Nathan McNeil vs without Nathan McNeil is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 42.9% | 50.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 33.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 42.9% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 45.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 33.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 25.0% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 53.3% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.