Iowa’s carries with Nathan McNeil and without Nathan McNeil
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 1.5 carries over with Nathan McNeil and 5.3 carries under without Nathan McNeil in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 35.4 and 27.7, a difference of 7.7. All 3 nonconference games were with Nathan McNeil.
Nathan McNeil, running back: 128 rushing yards, 21 carries and 5 receptions in 4 games this season, 15% of Iowa’s carries in those games.
3 games without Nathan McNeil is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +6.8 difference in carries over expected with Nathan McNeil vs without Nathan McNeil is about what you’d expect.
A +7.7 difference in carries with Nathan McNeil vs without Nathan McNeil is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 38 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 29 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 24 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 21 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 38 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 30 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 39 | 33.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.