Indiana’s third-down conversion rate with Khobie Martin and without Khobie Martin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Indiana was 7.2 percentage points over with Khobie Martin and 1.7 percentage points under without Khobie Martin over its last 25 games, 15 games against 8. The plain averages are 56.3% and 41.4%, a difference of 14.9%. Both games after a bye were with Khobie Martin.
Khobie Martin, running back: 512 rushing yards, 81 carries and 1 reception in 12 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Khobie Martin
+7.2%
without Khobie Martin
−1.7%
-20%0%20%
A +8.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Khobie Martin vs without Khobie Martin is about what you’d expect.
plain
56.3%
41.4%
20%40%60%
A +14.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Khobie Martin vs without Khobie Martin is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Khobie Martinwithout Khobie Martin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | W | 58.8% | 48.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 55.6% | 52.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Indiana State | W | 75.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 72.7% | 51.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Iowa | W | 40.0% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Oregon | W | 35.7% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 62.5% | 49.1% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 75.0% | 54.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 61.5% | 53.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Penn State | W | 41.7% | 51.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 58.3% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 50.0% | 49.8% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 42.7% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 64.3% | 46.9% | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsOregon (neutral) | W | 78.6% | 44.7% | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 44.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 55.6% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 20.0% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Northwestern | W | 60.0% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 50.0% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 10.0% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsOhio State | L | 50.0% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 28.6% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Minnesota | W | 15.4% | 36.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Indiana State, Howard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 24 of these 25 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.