Indiana’s third-down conversion rate at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Indiana was 8.4 percentage points over at home and 5.6 percentage points under away over its last 25 games, 11 games against 8. The plain averages are 56.1% and 39.7%, a difference of 16.4%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home. All 6 nonconference games were at home. Both games after a bye were away.
Indiana’s +14.0% at home vs away over expected ranks 4th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +14.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A +16.4% difference in third-down conversion rate at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | W | 58.8% | 48.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 55.6% | 52.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Indiana State | W | 75.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 72.7% | 51.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Iowa | W | 40.0% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Oregon | W | 35.7% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 62.5% | 49.1% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 75.0% | 54.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 61.5% | 53.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Penn State | W | 41.7% | 51.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 58.3% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 50.0% | 49.8% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 42.7% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 64.3% | 46.9% | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsOregon (neutral) | W | 78.6% | 44.7% | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 44.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 55.6% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 20.0% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Northwestern | W | 60.0% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 50.0% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 10.0% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsOhio State | L | 50.0% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 28.6% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Minnesota | W | 15.4% | 36.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Indiana State, Howard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.