Illinois’ third-down conversion rate with Katin Houser and without Katin Houser
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 1.4 percentage points over with Katin Houser and 16.7 percentage points over without Katin Houser over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.8% and 50.0%, a difference of 6.2%. Expected was 9.7 percentage points higher with Katin Houser than without Katin Houser. All 3 away games were with Katin Houser. All 3 nonconference games were with Katin Houser. All 6 games on a normal week were with Katin Houser.
Katin Houser, quarterback: 1,663 passing yards, 216 pass attempts and 140 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Katin Houser is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Katin Houser
+1.4%
without Katin Houser
+16.7%
0%10%
plain
43.8%
50.0%
40%45%50%
The games
with Katin Houserwithout Katin Houser
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Michigan State | W | 53.3% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Rutgers | W | 40.0% | 45.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | W | 40.0% | 44.9% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | W | 66.7% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 44.4% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 38.5% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 58.3% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 10.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs USC | W | 60.0% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 18.2% | 43.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 28.6% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 75.0% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 58.3% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Maryland | W | 53.8% | 45.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 30.8% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsNorthwestern | W | 20.0% | 45.7% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 50.0% | 47.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 41.7% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 42.9% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsPurdue | L | 53.8% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 50.0% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 36.4% | 42.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Katin Houser nor without Katin Houser: Katin Houser had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.