Illinois’ third-down conversion rate with Katin Houser and without Katin Houser
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 1.5 percentage points over with Katin Houser and 16.7 percentage points over without Katin Houser in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.8% and 50.0%, a difference of 6.2%. Expected was 9.6 percentage points higher with Katin Houser than without Katin Houser. All 3 away games were with Katin Houser. All 3 nonconference games were with Katin Houser. All 6 games on a normal week were with Katin Houser.
Katin Houser, quarterback: 1,663 passing yards, 216 pass attempts and 140 completions in 7 games this season.
One game without Katin Houser is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Katin Houser
+1.5%
without Katin Houser
+16.7%
0%10%
plain
43.8%
50.0%
40%45%50%
The games
with Katin Houserwithout Katin Houser
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 50.0% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 41.7% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 42.9% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | 53.8% | 47.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 50.0% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 36.4% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.