Illinois’ third-down conversion rate with Kaden Feagin and without Kaden Feagin
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 1.8 percentage points over with Kaden Feagin and 7.1 percentage points over without Kaden Feagin over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 42.2% and 50.8%, a difference of 8.5%. All 6 night games were with Kaden Feagin. Both top-10 opponents were with Kaden Feagin. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Kaden Feagin.
Kaden Feagin, running back: 507 rushing yards, 122 carries and 24 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kaden Feagin vs without Kaden Feagin is about what you’d expect.
A −8.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kaden Feagin vs without Kaden Feagin is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Michigan State | W | 53.3% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Rutgers | W | 40.0% | 45.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | W | 40.0% | 44.9% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | W | 66.7% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 44.4% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 38.5% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 58.3% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 10.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs USC | W | 60.0% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 18.2% | 43.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 28.6% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 75.0% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 58.3% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Maryland | W | 53.8% | 45.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 30.8% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsNorthwestern | W | 20.0% | 45.7% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 50.0% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 41.7% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 42.9% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsPurdue | L | 53.8% | 47.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 50.0% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 36.4% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois, Southern Illinois have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.