Illinois’ third-down conversion rate with Kaden Feagin and without Kaden Feagin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 3.2 percentage points over with Kaden Feagin and 6.2 percentage points over without Kaden Feagin in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.2% and 53.8%, a difference of 10.6%. All 3 away games were with Kaden Feagin. All 3 nonconference games were with Kaden Feagin. All 4 first-half games were with Kaden Feagin.
Kaden Feagin, running back: 8 receptions and 73 receiving yards in 5 games this season.
One game without Kaden Feagin is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Kaden Feagin
+3.2%
without Kaden Feagin
+6.2%
0%10%
plain
43.2%
53.8%
40%45%50%
The games
with Kaden Feaginwithout Kaden Feagin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 50.0% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 41.7% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 42.9% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | 53.8% | 47.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 50.0% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 36.4% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.