Illinois’ third-down conversion rate with Ca'Lil Valentine and since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 2.8 percentage points over with Ca'Lil Valentine and 4.1 percentage points over since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game over its last 25 games, 20 games against 3. The plain averages are 44.1% and 42.7%, a difference of 1.4%. Expected was 2.9 percentage points higher with Ca'Lil Valentine than since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game. All 3 neutral-site games were with Ca'Lil Valentine. All 6 night games were with Ca'Lil Valentine. All 5 ranked opponents were with Ca'Lil Valentine.
Ca'Lil Valentine, running back: 903 rushing yards, 201 carries and 14 receptions in 22 of those 25 games.
3 games since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −1.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Michigan State | W | 53.3% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Rutgers | W | 40.0% | 45.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | W | 40.0% | 44.9% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | W | 66.7% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 44.4% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 38.5% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 58.3% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 10.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs USC | W | 60.0% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 18.2% | 43.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 28.6% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 75.0% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 58.3% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Maryland | W | 53.8% | 45.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 30.8% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsNorthwestern | W | 20.0% | 45.7% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 50.0% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 41.7% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 42.9% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsPurdue | L | 53.8% | 47.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 50.0% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 36.4% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Western Illinois, Southern Illinois have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.