Illinois’ third-down conversion rate with Ca'Lil Valentine and since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 3.3 percentage points over with Ca'Lil Valentine and 4.1 percentage points over since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 45.7% and 42.7%, a difference of 3.0%. Expected was 5.2 percentage points higher with Ca'Lil Valentine than since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Ca'Lil Valentine. All 4 first-half games were with Ca'Lil Valentine.
Ca'Lil Valentine, running back: 225 rushing yards, 50 carries and 3 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +3.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 50.0% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 41.7% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 42.9% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | 53.8% | 47.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 50.0% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 36.4% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.