Illinois’ points of margin with Katin Houser and without Katin Houser
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 3.5 points under with Katin Houser and 20.9 points over without Katin Houser over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 3.9 and 11.0, a difference of 7.1. Expected was 11.5 points higher with Katin Houser than without Katin Houser. All 3 away games were with Katin Houser. All 3 nonconference games were with Katin Houser. All 6 games on a normal week were with Katin Houser.
Katin Houser, quarterback: 1,663 passing yards, 216 pass attempts and 140 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Katin Houser is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Katin Houser
−3.5
without Katin Houser
+20.9
-1001020
plain
3.9
11.0
-20020
The games
with Katin Houserwithout Katin Houser
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Michigan State | W | 22 | 11.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Rutgers | W | 7 | -1.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | W | 10 | 9.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | W | 4 | -11.5 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 26 | -1.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 38 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | -53 | -21.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs USC | W | 2 | -4.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 16 | 10.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | -18 | -12.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Washington | L | -17 | -5.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 22 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Maryland | W | 18 | 14.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | -17 | 9.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsNorthwestern | W | 7 | 9.1 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | W | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 19 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsDuke | L | -4 | 0.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | -23 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsPurdue | L | -7 | 4.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 1 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 11 | -9.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 3 | 9.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Katin Houser nor without Katin Houser: Katin Houser had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.