Illinois’ points of margin with Kaden Feagin and without Kaden Feagin
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 1.9 points over with Kaden Feagin and 11.7 points under without Kaden Feagin in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 6.4 and -7.0, a difference of 13.4. All 3 away games were with Kaden Feagin. All 3 nonconference games were with Kaden Feagin. All 4 first-half games were with Kaden Feagin.
Kaden Feagin, running back: 8 receptions and 73 receiving yards in 5 games this season.
One game without Kaden Feagin is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kaden Feagin
+1.9
without Kaden Feagin
−11.7
-1001020
plain
6.4
-7.0
-20020
The games
with Kaden Feaginwithout Kaden Feagin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 19 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | -4 | 0.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | -23 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | -7 | 4.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 1 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 11 | -9.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 3 | 9.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.