Illinois’ points of margin with Ca'Lil Valentine and since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 4.4 points under with Ca'Lil Valentine and 5.8 points over since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 4.6 and 5.0, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 1.4 points higher with Ca'Lil Valentine than since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Ca'Lil Valentine. All 4 first-half games were with Ca'Lil Valentine.
Ca'Lil Valentine, running back: 225 rushing yards, 50 carries and 3 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −10.1 difference in points of margin over expected with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −0.4 difference in points of margin with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 19 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | -4 | 0.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | -23 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | -7 | 4.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 1 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 11 | -9.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 3 | 9.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.