Illinois’ carries with Katin Houser and without Katin Houser
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 3.0 carries under with Katin Houser and 7.4 carries over without Katin Houser in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.9 and 39.0, a difference of 9.1. All 3 away games were with Katin Houser. All 3 nonconference games were with Katin Houser. All 6 games on a normal week were with Katin Houser.
Katin Houser, quarterback: 1,663 passing yards, 216 pass attempts and 140 completions in 7 games this season, 15% of Illinois’s carries in those games.
One game without Katin Houser is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Katin Houser
−3.0
without Katin Houser
+7.4
-100
plain
29.9
39.0
253035
The games
with Katin Houserwithout Katin Houser
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 25 | 40.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 32 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 33 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | 27 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 33 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 39 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 31 | 32.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.