Illinois’ carries with Kaden Feagin and without Kaden Feagin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 0.5 carries under with Kaden Feagin and 7.2 carries under without Kaden Feagin in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.6 and 27.0, a difference of 4.6. All 3 away games were with Kaden Feagin. All 3 nonconference games were with Kaden Feagin. All 4 first-half games were with Kaden Feagin.
Kaden Feagin, running back: 8 receptions and 73 receiving yards in 5 games this season.
One game without Kaden Feagin is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Kaden Feagin
−0.5
without Kaden Feagin
−7.2
-100
plain
31.6
27.0
253035
The games
with Kaden Feaginwithout Kaden Feagin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 25 | 40.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 32 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 33 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | 27 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 33 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 39 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 31 | 32.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.