Illinois’ carries with Ca'Lil Valentine and since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was 4.1 carries under with Ca'Lil Valentine and 2.1 carries over since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 29.0 and 34.3, a difference of 5.3. All 3 nonconference games were with Ca'Lil Valentine. All 4 first-half games were with Ca'Lil Valentine.
Ca'Lil Valentine, running back: 225 rushing yards, 50 carries and 3 receptions in 5 games this season, 34% of Illinois’s carries in those games.
3 games since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −6.2 difference in carries over expected with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −5.3 difference in carries with Ca'Lil Valentine vs since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ca'Lil Valentine and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 25 | 40.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 32 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 33 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Purdue | L | 27 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 33 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 39 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 31 | 32.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Southern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.