Georgia’s total yards with Nate Frazier and without Nate Frazier
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 12.2 yards over with Nate Frazier and 23.6 yards over without Nate Frazier in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 476.2 and 382.0, a difference of 94.2. Both nonconference games were with Nate Frazier.
Nate Frazier, running back: 297 rushing yards, 47 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Nate Frazier is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
total yards a game over expected
with Nate Frazier
+12.2
without Nate Frazier
+23.6
0100
A −11.4 difference in total yards over expected with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is about what you’d expect.
plain
476.2
382.0
400500600
A +94.2 difference in total yards with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Nate Frazierwithout Nate Frazier
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 661 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 497 | 478.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 468 | 405.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 306 | 382.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 473 | 420.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 458 | 334.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Auburn | L | 440 | 419.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 318 | 411.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.