Georgia’s third-down conversion rate with Nate Frazier and without Nate Frazier
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 11.1 percentage points over with Nate Frazier and 1.5 percentage points under without Nate Frazier in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 58.1% and 39.4%, a difference of 18.7%. Both nonconference games were with Nate Frazier.
Nate Frazier, running back: 297 rushing yards, 47 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Nate Frazier is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +12.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is about what you’d expect.
A +18.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 58.3% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 63.6% | 46.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 25.0% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 70.0% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 53.8% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Auburn | L | 50.0% | 45.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 40.0% | 45.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.