Georgia’s points with Nate Frazier and without Nate Frazier
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 4.7 points over with Nate Frazier and 2.5 points over without Nate Frazier in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 44.5 and 30.5, a difference of 14.0. Both nonconference games were with Nate Frazier.
Nate Frazier, running back: 297 rushing yards, 47 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Nate Frazier is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A +2.2 difference in points over expected with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is about what you’d expect.
A +14.0 difference in points with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nate Frazier and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 70 | 40.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 45 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 41 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38 | 39.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 20 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Auburn | L | 24 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 27 | 35.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.