Georgia’s points with Gunner Stockton and without Gunner Stockton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 1.3 points over with Gunner Stockton and 12.9 points over without Gunner Stockton over its last 25 games, 22 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.4 and 53.5, a difference of 21.1. All 5 away games were with Gunner Stockton. All 7 neutral-site games were with Gunner Stockton. All 11 ranked opponents were with Gunner Stockton.
Gunner Stockton, quarterback: 4,870 passing yards, 615 pass attempts and 431 completions in 24 of those 25 games.
2 games without Gunner Stockton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −21.1 difference in points with Gunner Stockton vs without Gunner Stockton is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Gunner Stockton and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 44 | 31.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 22 | 23.5 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 10 | 26.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Marshall | W | 45 | 41.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 44 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 21 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 35 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 20 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | W | 43 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 24 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 41 | 33.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 35 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 35 | 43.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech (neutral) | W | 16 | 34.0 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsAlabama (neutral) | W | 28 | 24.9 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsOle Miss (neutral) | L | 34 | 28.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 70 | 40.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 45 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 41 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38 | 39.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Alabama | W | 20 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAuburn | L | 24 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida (neutral) | W | 27 | 35.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay, Tennessee State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.