Georgia’s points of margin with Nate Frazier and without Nate Frazier
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 0.6 points over with Nate Frazier and 12.8 points over without Nate Frazier over its last 25 games, 21 games against 2. The plain averages are 16.2 and 15.5, a difference of 0.7. Expected was 10.6 points higher with Nate Frazier than without Nate Frazier. All 7 neutral-site games were with Nate Frazier. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Nate Frazier. All 10 nonconference games were with Nate Frazier.
Nate Frazier, running back: 1,378 rushing yards, 241 carries and 26 receptions in 23 of those 25 games.
2 games without Nate Frazier is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −12.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is about what you’d expect.
A +0.7 difference in points of margin with Nate Frazier vs without Nate Frazier is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 2 | 17.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 3 | -4.8 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | -13 | -4.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Marshall | W | 38 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 3 | 5.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | -3 | 5.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 21 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 10 | 6.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | W | 8 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 4 | 14.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 20 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 25 | 4.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 32 | 45.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech (neutral) | W | 7 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsAlabama (neutral) | W | 21 | -1.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsOle Miss (neutral) | L | -5 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 50 | 41.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 28 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 28 | 12.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 24 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Alabama | W | 3 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAuburn | L | -3 | 21.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida (neutral) | W | 19 | 4.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay, Tennessee State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.