Georgia’s points of margin with KJ Bolden and without KJ Bolden
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 2.9 points over with KJ Bolden and 24.4 points under without KJ Bolden over its last 25 games, 22 games against 1. The plain averages are 17.0 and -3.0, a difference of 20.0. All 5 away games were with KJ Bolden. All 7 neutral-site games were with KJ Bolden. All 6 night games were with KJ Bolden.
KJ Bolden, defender: 24 of those 25 games.
One game without KJ Bolden is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with KJ Bolden
+2.9
without KJ Bolden
−24.4
-20020
plain
17.0
-3.0
0204060
The games
with KJ Boldenwithout KJ Bolden
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 2 | 17.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 3 | -4.8 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | -13 | -4.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Marshall | W | 38 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 3 | 5.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | -3 | 5.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 21 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 10 | 6.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | W | 8 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 4 | 14.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 20 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 25 | 4.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 32 | 45.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech (neutral) | W | 7 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsAlabama (neutral) | W | 21 | -1.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsOle Miss (neutral) | L | -5 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 50 | 41.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 28 | 15.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 28 | 13.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 24 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Alabama | W | 3 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAuburn | L | -3 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida (neutral) | W | 19 | 4.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Austin Peay, Tennessee State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.