Georgia’s points of margin with Chauncey Bowens and since Chauncey Bowens’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 7.8 points over with Chauncey Bowens and 0.4 points over since Chauncey Bowens’ last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 38.0 and 6.3, a difference of 31.7. Both ranked opponents were since Chauncey Bowens’ last game. Both nonconference games were with Chauncey Bowens. All 4 first-half games were with Chauncey Bowens.
Chauncey Bowens, running back: 124 rushing yards, 35 carries and 10 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Chauncey Bowens’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +7.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Chauncey Bowens vs since Chauncey Bowens’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +31.7 difference in points of margin with Chauncey Bowens vs since Chauncey Bowens’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Chauncey Bowens and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 50 | 41.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 28 | 15.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 28 | 13.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 24 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 3 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Auburn | L | -3 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 19 | 4.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.