Georgia’s carries with Chauncey Bowens and without Chauncey Bowens
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 0.0 carries over with Chauncey Bowens and 2.4 carries over without Chauncey Bowens over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 37.6 and 34.9, a difference of 2.7. Expected was 5.6 carries higher with Chauncey Bowens than without Chauncey Bowens. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Chauncey Bowens.
Chauncey Bowens, running back: 650 rushing yards, 138 carries and 24 receptions in 17 of those 25 games, 22% of Georgia’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A −2.3 difference in carries over expected with Chauncey Bowens vs without Chauncey Bowens is about what you’d expect.
A +2.7 difference in carries with Chauncey Bowens vs without Chauncey Bowens is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 26 | 28.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 37 | 28.9 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 29 | 31.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Marshall | W | 44 | 41.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 54 | 39.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 33 | 36.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 42 | 40.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 29 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | W | 46 | 38.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 37 | 39.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 42 | 39.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 35 | 38.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 42 | 41.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech (neutral) | W | 46 | 38.0 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsAlabama (neutral) | W | 38 | 36.0 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsOle Miss (neutral) | L | 37 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 26 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 33 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 40 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 26 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 32 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Alabama | W | 36 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAuburn | L | 28 | 39.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida (neutral) | W | 42 | 30.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay, Tennessee State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.