Georgia’s carries with Chauncey Bowens and since Chauncey Bowens’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia was 2.2 carries under with Chauncey Bowens and 1.8 carries over since Chauncey Bowens’ last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.4 and 35.3, a difference of 3.9. Both ranked opponents were since Chauncey Bowens’ last game. Both nonconference games were with Chauncey Bowens. All 4 first-half games were with Chauncey Bowens.
Chauncey Bowens, running back: 124 rushing yards, 35 carries and 10 receptions in 5 games this season, 22% of Georgia’s carries in those games.
3 games since Chauncey Bowens’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −4.0 difference in carries over expected with Chauncey Bowens vs since Chauncey Bowens’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −3.9 difference in carries with Chauncey Bowens vs since Chauncey Bowens’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tennessee State | W | 26 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 33 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 40 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 26 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 32 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 36 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Auburn | L | 28 | 39.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Florida (neutral) | W | 42 | 30.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.