Georgia State’s third-down conversion rate with Dennis Murray Jr. and without Dennis Murray Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 0.0 percentage points under with Dennis Murray Jr. and 0.3 percentage points over without Dennis Murray Jr. over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 39.8% and 38.9%, a difference of 0.8%. Both ranked opponents were with Dennis Murray Jr.. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Dennis Murray Jr.. All 3 games after a bye were with Dennis Murray Jr..
Dennis Murray Jr., running back: 323 rushing yards, 59 carries and 28 receptions in 17 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −0.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Dennis Murray Jr. vs without Dennis Murray Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dennis Murray Jr. vs without Dennis Murray Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | @ UConn | L | 47.1% | 27.2% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ James Madison | L | 28.6% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Arkansas State | L | 14.3% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas State | W | 41.7% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 41.7% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 13.3% | 36.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | 40.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 37.5% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 50.0% | 31.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | L | 47.4% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 71.4% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 46.2% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 23.1% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Marshall | L | 41.2% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Troy | L | 21.4% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 26.7% | 35.1% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 50.0% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 50.0% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsOld Dominion | W | 50.0% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 30.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | 33.3% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 33.3% | 42.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, North Carolina A&T have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.