Georgia State’s third-down conversion rate with Dennis Murray Jr. and without Dennis Murray Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 1.0 percentage points under with Dennis Murray Jr. and 8.4 percentage points over without Dennis Murray Jr. in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 42.0% and 50.0%, a difference of 8.0%. All 4 conference games were with Dennis Murray Jr.. All 4 second-half games were with Dennis Murray Jr..
Dennis Murray Jr., running back: 252 rushing yards, 43 carries and 11 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Dennis Murray Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −9.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Dennis Murray Jr. vs without Dennis Murray Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −8.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dennis Murray Jr. vs without Dennis Murray Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 50.0% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 50.0% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 50.0% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 30.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | 33.3% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 33.3% | 42.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina A&T has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.