Georgia State’s third-down conversion rate with Ayden Pereira and without Ayden Pereira
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 9.6 percentage points under with Ayden Pereira and 6.1 percentage points over without Ayden Pereira over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 33.3% and 47.5%, a difference of 14.2%. All 4 nonconference games were without Ayden Pereira.
Ayden Pereira, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 73 pass attempts and 41 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games with Ayden Pereira is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −15.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayden Pereira and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A −14.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayden Pereira and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | @ UConn | L | 47.1% | 27.2% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ James Madison | L | 28.6% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Arkansas State | L | 14.3% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas State | W | 41.7% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 41.7% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 13.3% | 36.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | 40.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 37.5% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 50.0% | 31.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | L | 47.4% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 71.4% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 46.2% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 23.1% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Marshall | L | 41.2% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Troy | L | 21.4% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 26.7% | 35.1% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 50.0% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 50.0% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsOld Dominion | W | 50.0% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 30.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | 33.3% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 33.3% | 42.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- North Carolina A&T has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ayden Pereira nor without Ayden Pereira: Ayden Pereira had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.