Georgia State’s third-down conversion rate with Ayden Pereira and without Ayden Pereira
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 9.6 percentage points under with Ayden Pereira and 6.1 percentage points over without Ayden Pereira in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 33.3% and 47.5%, a difference of 14.2%. All 4 nonconference games were without Ayden Pereira. All 4 first-half games were without Ayden Pereira.
Ayden Pereira, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 73 pass attempts and 41 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games with Ayden Pereira is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −15.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayden Pereira and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A −14.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayden Pereira and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 50.0% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 50.0% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 50.0% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 30.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | 33.3% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 33.3% | 42.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- North Carolina A&T has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.