Georgia State’s rushing yards with Ayden Pereira and without Ayden Pereira
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 30.5 yards under with Ayden Pereira and 31.7 yards over without Ayden Pereira in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 180.5 and 207.8, a difference of 27.3. Expected was 50.5 yards higher with Ayden Pereira than without Ayden Pereira. All 4 nonconference games were without Ayden Pereira. All 4 first-half games were without Ayden Pereira.
Ayden Pereira, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 73 pass attempts and 41 completions in 7 games this season, 8% of Georgia State’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games with Ayden Pereira is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −62.2 difference in rushing yards over expected with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is about what you’d expect.
A −27.3 difference in rushing yards with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 286 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 236 | 156.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 203 | 110.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 146 | 230.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 188 | 171.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 188 | 134.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | 201 | 205.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 160 | 216.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- North Carolina A&T has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.