Georgia State’s points with Cameran Brown and without Cameran Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 1.0 points over with Cameran Brown and 2.1 points under without Cameran Brown over its last 25 games, 9 games against 9. The plain averages are 30.1 and 20.7, a difference of 9.4.
Cameran Brown, quarterback: 2,652 passing yards, 351 pass attempts and 230 completions in 17 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Cameran Brown
+1.0
without Cameran Brown
−2.1
-10010
A +3.1 difference in points over expected with Cameran Brown vs without Cameran Brown is about what you’d expect.
plain
30.1
20.7
2040
A +9.4 difference in points with Cameran Brown vs without Cameran Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Cameran Brownwithout Cameran Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | @ UConn | L | 27 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ James Madison | L | 7 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Arkansas State | L | 20 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas State | W | 52 | 18.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 27 | 30.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 7 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | 16 | 18.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 21 | 11.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 7 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | L | 20 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 24 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 31 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 27 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Marshall | L | 18 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Troy | L | 19 | 17.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 10 | 12.5 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 31 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 30 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 35 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsOld Dominion | W | 42 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 22 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | 32 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 20 | 31.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, North Carolina A&T have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Cameran Brown nor without Cameran Brown: Cameran Brown had no game for the team that season, and sit out.