Georgia State’s points with Ayden Pereira and without Ayden Pereira
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 3.5 points under with Ayden Pereira and 3.3 points over without Ayden Pereira over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 26.0 and 36.5, a difference of 10.5. All 4 nonconference games were without Ayden Pereira.
Ayden Pereira, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 73 pass attempts and 41 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games with Ayden Pereira is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −6.9 difference in points over expected with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is about what you’d expect.
A −10.5 difference in points with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | @ UConn | L | 27 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ James Madison | L | 7 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Arkansas State | L | 20 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas State | W | 52 | 18.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 27 | 30.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 7 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | 16 | 18.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 21 | 11.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 7 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | L | 20 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 24 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 31 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 27 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Marshall | L | 18 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Troy | L | 19 | 17.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 10 | 12.5 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 31 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 30 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 35 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsOld Dominion | W | 42 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 22 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | 32 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 20 | 31.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- North Carolina A&T has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ayden Pereira nor without Ayden Pereira: Ayden Pereira had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.