Georgia State’s points of margin with Ayden Pereira and without Ayden Pereira
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 12.1 points under with Ayden Pereira and 5.2 points over without Ayden Pereira in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are -8.5 and 12.5, a difference of 21.0. All 4 nonconference games were without Ayden Pereira. All 4 first-half games were without Ayden Pereira.
Ayden Pereira, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 73 pass attempts and 41 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games with Ayden Pereira is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −17.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is about what you’d expect.
A −21.0 difference in points of margin with Ayden Pereira vs without Ayden Pereira is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 14 | -2.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | -14 | -13.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 21 | 16.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 32 | 8.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | -27 | -8.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | -6 | -0.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | -11 | 7.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- North Carolina A&T has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.