Georgia State’s carries with Dennis Murray Jr. and without Dennis Murray Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia State was 0.8 carries over with Dennis Murray Jr. and 0.1 carries under without Dennis Murray Jr. in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 37.3 and 34.5, a difference of 2.8. All 4 conference games were with Dennis Murray Jr.. All 4 second-half games were with Dennis Murray Jr..
Dennis Murray Jr., running back: 252 rushing yards, 43 carries and 11 receptions in 6 games this season, 19% of Georgia State’s carries in those games.
2 games without Dennis Murray Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +1.0 difference in carries over expected with Dennis Murray Jr. vs without Dennis Murray Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +2.8 difference in carries with Dennis Murray Jr. vs without Dennis Murray Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 44 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 35 | 33.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 34 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 43 | 38.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 37 | 33.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | 31 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 32 | 39.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina A&T has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.