Georgia Southern’s third-down conversion rate with Max Johnson and without Max Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 2.9 percentage points over with Max Johnson and 13.7 percentage points under without Max Johnson over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.0% and 25.0%, a difference of 17.0%. All 4 home games were with Max Johnson. All 4 nonconference games were with Max Johnson.
Max Johnson, quarterback: 1,928 passing yards, 279 pass attempts and 190 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
One game without Max Johnson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Max Johnson
+2.9%
without Max Johnson
−13.7%
-10%0%10%
plain
42.0%
25.0%
30%40%50%
The games
with Max Johnsonwithout Max Johnson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Troy | L | 37.5% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 47.1% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Appalachian State | W | 54.5% | 45.5% | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | L | 43.8% | 41.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 36.4% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ USC | L | 26.7% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 63.6% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 28.6% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | 46.7% | 45.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 69.2% | 43.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 35.7% | 44.5% | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @Appalachian State | W | 40.0% | 45.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsCoastal Carolina | W | 41.7% | 42.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 28.6% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Marshall | W | 57.9% | 39.9% | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsAppalachian State (neutral) | W | 45.5% | 45.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 23.5% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 58.8% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 53.8% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Coastal Carolina | W | 30.8% | 43.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 25.0% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsAppalachian State | W | 47.1% | 38.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Charleston Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Max Johnson nor without Max Johnson: Max Johnson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.