Georgia Southern’s third-down conversion rate with David Mbadinga and without David Mbadinga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 3.4 percentage points over with David Mbadinga and 2.8 percentage points under without David Mbadinga over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 44.9% and 39.2%, a difference of 5.7%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with David Mbadinga.
David Mbadinga, running back: 518 rushing yards, 115 carries and 19 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with David Mbadinga
+3.4%
without David Mbadinga
−2.8%
-10%0%10%20%
A +6.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with David Mbadinga vs without David Mbadinga is about what you’d expect.
plain
44.9%
39.2%
40%60%
A +5.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with David Mbadinga vs without David Mbadinga is about what you’d expect.
The games
with David Mbadingawithout David Mbadinga
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Troy | L | 37.5% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 47.1% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Appalachian State | W | 54.5% | 45.5% | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | L | 43.8% | 41.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 36.4% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ USC | L | 26.7% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 63.6% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 28.6% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | 46.7% | 45.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 69.2% | 43.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 35.7% | 44.5% | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @Appalachian State | W | 40.0% | 45.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsCoastal Carolina | W | 41.7% | 42.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 28.6% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Marshall | W | 57.9% | 39.9% | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsAppalachian State (neutral) | W | 45.5% | 45.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 23.5% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 58.8% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 53.8% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Coastal Carolina | W | 30.8% | 43.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 25.0% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsAppalachian State | W | 47.1% | 38.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine, Charleston Southern have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.