Georgia Southern’s third-down conversion rate with David Mbadinga and without David Mbadinga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 2.9 percentage points over with David Mbadinga and 13.7 percentage points under without David Mbadinga in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.0% and 25.0%, a difference of 17.0%. All 4 home games were with David Mbadinga. All 4 nonconference games were with David Mbadinga. All 4 first-half games were with David Mbadinga.
David Mbadinga, running back: 239 rushing yards, 44 carries and 11 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without David Mbadinga is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with David Mbadinga
+2.9%
without David Mbadinga
−13.7%
-10%0%10%
plain
42.0%
25.0%
30%40%50%
The games
with David Mbadingawithout David Mbadinga
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 23.5% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 58.8% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 53.8% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 30.8% | 43.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 25.0% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 47.1% | 38.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Charleston Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.