Georgia Southern’s rushing yards with David Mbadinga and without David Mbadinga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 20.3 yards under with David Mbadinga and 13.7 yards over without David Mbadinga in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 119.0 and 138.0, a difference of 19.0. All 4 home games were with David Mbadinga. All 4 nonconference games were with David Mbadinga. All 4 first-half games were with David Mbadinga.
David Mbadinga, running back: 239 rushing yards, 44 carries and 11 receptions in 7 games this season, 29% of Georgia Southern’s rushing yards in those games.
One game without David Mbadinga is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with David Mbadinga
−20.3
without David Mbadinga
+13.7
-100-500
plain
119.0
138.0
50100150
The games
with David Mbadingawithout David Mbadinga
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 170 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 22 | 136.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 182 | 132.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 66 | 90.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 167 | 156.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 122 | 117.2 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 138 | 124.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 104 | 152.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Charleston Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.