Georgia Southern’s points of margin with Max Johnson and without Max Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 0.5 points over with Max Johnson and 4.4 points under without Max Johnson in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 2.6 and 8.0, a difference of 5.4. Expected was 15.1 points lower with Max Johnson than without Max Johnson. All 4 home games were with Max Johnson. All 4 nonconference games were with Max Johnson. All 4 first-half games were with Max Johnson.
Max Johnson, quarterback: 1,928 passing yards, 279 pass attempts and 190 completions in 8 games this season.
One game without Max Johnson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Max Johnson
+0.5
without Max Johnson
−4.4
-505
plain
2.6
8.0
020
The games
with Max Johnsonwithout Max Johnson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | -15 | -8.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | -4 | -0.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | -14 | -12.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 7 | -0.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | -3 | -2.4 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 8 | 12.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 16 | 8.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Charleston Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.