Georgia Southern’s pass attempts with David Mbadinga and without David Mbadinga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 0.6 pass attempts over with David Mbadinga and 1.7 pass attempts over without David Mbadinga over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 35.0 and 35.0, a difference of 0.0. Expected was 0.3 pass attempts higher with David Mbadinga than without David Mbadinga. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with David Mbadinga.
David Mbadinga, running back: 518 rushing yards, 115 carries and 19 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −1.0 difference in pass attempts over expected with David Mbadinga vs without David Mbadinga is about what you’d expect.
A 0.0 difference in pass attempts with David Mbadinga vs without David Mbadinga is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with David Mbadinga and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Troy | L | 28 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 38 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Appalachian State | W | 19 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | L | 34 | 34.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 28 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ USC | L | 45 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 24 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 24 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | 43 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 26 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 24 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @Appalachian State | W | 37 | 34.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsCoastal Carolina | W | 35 | 33.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 42 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Marshall | W | 39 | 30.3 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsAppalachian State (neutral) | W | 27 | 35.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 48 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 33 | 33.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 39 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Coastal Carolina | W | 31 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 40 | 42.1 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 41 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsAppalachian State | W | 48 | 37.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine, Charleston Southern have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.